Capital market update for April 15, 2024

Insights and Analysis: Mortgage and Real Estate Capital Markets Update with Jeff Rosato, SVP of Capital Markets at Nationwide Mortgage Bankers

Hello everyone, and I hope your weekend was refreshing! Here’s your weekly update on the major bond market indices, upcoming Federal Reserve meetings, economic data releases, and general bond market trends.

Market Analysis:

Market participants had adjusted their expectations of rate cuts to July or September following last week’s inflation data and other stronger than expected economic data. The latest Retail Sales number continued this trend, reflecting stronger than expected economic data.

Despite mortgage rates inching up close to their yearly highs, last week saw a good lock volume, averaging 21 locks per day with a total of 106 for $47M.

Overall, April’s locked volume is down slightly by 4% compared to March. The Freddie Mac average 30-year fixed rate rose to 6.88%, up from 6.82% the prior week, with the max APR for 30-year fixed rate loans hitting roughly 8.38%.

Treasury yields and mortgage rates rose sharply after stronger-than-expected U.S. Retail Sales numbers were released. The CPI data also came in higher than expected, prompting a market sell-off midweek.

Despite this, NY Fed President John Williams expressed expectations of rate cuts beginning this year, citing a gradual easing of inflation. However, futures markets have significantly reduced bets on the amount of rate cuts for 2024, down to 50 basis points from 150 at the beginning of the year.

Upcoming Events:

This week, aside from Retail Sales numbers, there are few market-moving releases scheduled. However, Fed governors and presidents will be making speaking engagements, with Chairman Powell scheduled to speak tomorrow, 4/16, at 1:15 PM. The markets will closely watch for any changes in the Fed’s narrative following the recent string of hotter than expected data.

Current Trends:

Today, rates continue to rise, with MBS prices down by about 35-60 basis points compared to Friday’s close, and the 10-Year Treasury up sharply to 4.63.

Wishing you all a productive and successful week ahead!

Ready to learn explore your home purchase or refinancing options? Get started today!