Insights and Analysis: Mortgage and Real Estate Capital Markets Update with Jeff Rosato, SVP of Capital Markets at Nationwide Mortgage Bankers
I hope everyone enjoyed the holiday weekend! Here is this week’s update on the major bond market indices, scheduled Federal Reserve meetings, upcoming market-moving economic data releases, and general bond market trends.
“Pricing in fed funds futures now implies that the most likely scenario will be a single 25 basis point rate cut this year, occurring in November.”
Over the past two months, market participants pushed hopes of rate cuts back to September after a string of better-than-expected economic data and persistent inflation. The futures markets have drastically pared back bets on the number of rate cuts that will be made in 2024 to a maximum of 50 basis points of cuts, which is down sharply from 150 basis points at the beginning of the year. Pricing in fed funds futures now implies that the most likely scenario will be a single 25 basis point rate cut this year, occurring in November.
Economic Indicators and Future Outlook
This week, there is plenty of fresh economic data with the first Q1 GDP revision coming on Thursday, personal income and spending on Friday, and the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, the PCE index, being released on Friday.
Today, rates are generally flat compared to Friday’s close, and the 10-year Treasury is up slightly by about 2 basis points at 4.49%.
Have a great week!
