
Insights and Analysis: Mortgage and Real Estate Capital Markets Update with Jeff Rosato, SVP of Capital Markets at Nationwide Mortgage Bankers.
Key Takeaways: Bond Market Trends and Fed Outlook
Mortgage rates have remained steady, with the 30-year fixed rate holding at 6.95% and the 10-year Treasury yield slightly decreasing to 4.50%. The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, citing steady economic growth and lingering inflation concerns, while the market awaits key employment data that could influence future rate decisions.
Here is this week’s update on the major bond market indices, scheduled Federal Reserve meetings, upcoming market-moving economic data releases, and general bond market trends.

“In his press conference after the interest rate decision, Chairman Powell stated that, given current economic conditions, the Federal Reserve is in no hurry to adjust the Fed Funds Rate.”
Recent Lock Volume
Last week was an average week for new lock volume to finish off the month. We had 81 locks totaling $39M, averaging 16 locks per day, with our four-week trailing daily lock average rising to 17 per day. We closed out January with 364 total locks at $169.5M, marking a 10% increase compared to December. It’s great to see lock volume trending back up!
The Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.95% as of last Thursday—down just 1 basis point from the previous week but marking its second consecutive weekly decline. This places the maximum APR for 30-year fixed loans at approximately 8.45% (6.95% + 1.50%). Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield ended last week at 4.57%, rising 4 basis points over the week.
Federal Reserve & Economic Data
As expected, the Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged last week at its first FOMC meeting of the year. Economic data continues to indicate that the U.S. economy is expanding at a healthy pace.
- The Q4 2024 GDP report, released Thursday, came in slightly below expectations but remained strong.
- The PCE inflation index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, showed inflation still above the 2% target.
During his press conference, Chairman Powell reaffirmed that the Fed is in no rush to adjust rates. In addition to current economic data, the changing fiscal landscape under the new administration remains a key factor. The Fed will closely watch how new Trump-era tariffs impact consumer prices.
Looking Ahead: Key Economic Data This Week
- Wednesday: ADP Employment Report
- Friday: Official U.S. Employment Report
Aside from the employment reports, the week is light on economic data. However, expect various Federal Reserve officials to make public statements throughout the week.
So far today, MBS prices are rallying, up 20-25 basis points, while the 10-year Treasury yield has dropped 6 basis points to 4.50%.
Final Thoughts
With mortgage rates relatively unchanged in recent weeks, the market continues to reflect the Fed’s cautious, wait-and-see stance. We’ll be watching employment data closely this week for further market direction.
We’ll keep an eye on the market—check back next week for updates. If you want to talk about your homeownership goals, reach out anytime. We’re here to help!